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Backgrounder

Tenggara Backgrounder is a weekly political and business briefing service combining insights and analysis by in-house experts and those from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Universitas Prasetiya Mulya, as well as background information from The Jakarta Post journalists. Tenggara Backgrounder provides you exclusive insights into what’s happening behind the scenes along with insider scoops that are not published in the media.

Edition

March 6, 2026

Prabowo offers to mediate in US-Israeli war on Iran, but are there any takers?  

Indonesia's official response to the attack on Iran by Israel and the United States is unusual to say the least. The Foreign Ministry in a statement said Indonesia deeply regretted the breakdown of the negotiations between the US and Iran, offered to mediate to break the impasse between the two countries, and added that President Prabowo Subianto had "stated his readiness to launch diplomatic visits straight to the heart of the conflict, if necessary".

Other Topics
  • Chasing the godfather: Oil corruption iceberg far from melted
US trade deal could compel Indonesia to pick sides

The Indonesia–United States Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) reaches far beyond conventional tariff negotiations. While public debate has focused on potential export gains, the deal also includes provisions on investment, subsidy transparency and alignment with US regulatory standards that, over time, could narrow Indonesia's room for maneuver in shaping its own industrial policy and development strategy.

Other Topics
  • Indonesia-US trade deal undermines halal certification
  • Structural challenges could limit Danantara’s economic impact
  • Ramadan inflation surges, with geopolitics adding new risks
Edition

February 27, 2026

Desperately seeking funds for Red and White cooperatives  

The Red and White Cooperative (KDMP) initiative is rapidly transforming from a flagship economic program into a mandate that must succeed at any cost. In its wake, the program is now cannibalizing the Village Fund, the very backbone of rural development and a decade-long symbol of local empowerment.

Other Topics
  • Prabowo changes Indonesia’s narrative on Palestine
Indonesia’s trade gamble amid Trump’s policy mood swings

Indonesia's much-celebrated breakthrough in lowering United States tariffs is already losing its shine. Just one day after the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) was sealed, securing a headline tariff cut to 19 percent, the US Supreme Court ruled that President Donald Trump's earlier tariff regime was unlawful. The question now is not how deep the cut appears on paper, but whether Indonesia has genuinely strengthened its bargaining position or is merely navigating an increasingly unpredictable trade landscape.

Other Topics
  • Freeport divestment deal anchors Indonesia-US tariff negotiations
  • Indonesia’s customs crisis demands radical reform
  • Agrinas’ KMP import plan triggers automotive industry backlash
Edition

February 20, 2026

Business gives big thumbs down on Prabowo’s anti-graft drive

President Prabowo Subianto may be projecting himself globally and at home as a leader who is tough on corruption, not just in words but also in actions, with several high-profile corruption cases in his first year in office. But the business community is not impressed, and has even given the thumbs down to his overall anti-graft campaign.

Other Topics
  • Questioning the government’s health commitment to the poor
Prabowo’s corporate courtship and the politics of proximity

President Prabowo Subianto convened back-to-back meetings with key business leaders at his Hambalang residence on Feb. 9 and 10. He began with representatives of the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) before hosting five of the country's largest conglomerates the following day. The meetings were framed as efforts to strengthen government–business synergy and accelerate economic development. Yet they have also sparked questions about the political and economic calculus behind the outreach.

Other Topics
  • Wanted: The best candidates to tame the stock market
  • Indonesia’s high-stakes trade bet with Washington nears its moment of truth
  • Stabilizing coal prices through production cuts, DMO expansion
Edition

February 13, 2026

How Prabowo controls criticism in Indonesia’s democracy

On many occasions, President Prabowo Subianto has publicly stated that he welcomes criticism of his administration, emphasizing that governments require critical feedback, even when it is uncomfortable. Yet the situation on the ground suggests a paradoxical reality: criticism may be welcomed in rhetoric, but its public expression appears increasingly constrained.

Other Topics
  • How many political parties does Indonesia need? House decides
Himbara remarks signal expanding security role in economic governance

Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin stirred controversy after revealing that the Prabowo Subianto administration is considering a leadership reshuffle at state-owned banks. The announcement was unusual, coming from a Cabinet official whose portfolio centers on national defense. However, it reflects the increasingly visible role of the national security under the current administration.

Other Topics
  • Moody’s outlook downshift sends negative signals despite resilience
  • MSCI’s freeze on Indonesian equities tests investor confidence
  • Free land? Public housing and reviving Meikarta
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