May 6, 2019

Center for Strategic and International Studies Identity politics in 2019 presidential election: Projection and effectiveness

Abstract: Two years after the 212 rally on Dec. 2, 2016, Indonesia is still trying to understand the reasons behind the hardline movement, as well as the process and impacts. This article specifically attempts to analyze the electoral effect of the 212 movement on the 2019 presidential election.

The results of a CSIS survey conducted in 2017 suggest that the political preferences of supporters and participants of 212 movement are not homogenous; they vary across presidential candidates and political parties. It can, therefore, be concluded that from the electoral perspective, the 212 movement would not have a significant impact on the upcoming presidential election